“The normality of the market is not that normal,” says Transport Intelligence (Ti) in its Q2 Air Freight Rate Tracker, as economic growth bongdaso changing global trade structures introduce uncertain bongdaso volatile factors to the air cargo market.
bongdaso Ti’s Global Volumes Index reveals global airfreight volumes in Q1 fell 6.4% from the previous quarter.
But despite a month-on-month decline in the first two months of the quarter — 9.2% in January bongdaso 6.2% in February — a strong recovery was seen in March, with global volumes up 17.4%, month on month.
Year on year, global volumes have risen 7.3%, primarily driven by the 11.3% year-on-year growth in European volumes, followed by a 7% increase in Asian airport numbers bongdaso a 4.5% rise in North America.
“Demand has clearly been perking up over the past few months,” Ti noted.
bongdaso, unsurprisingly, the intelligence company attributed this to the volumes generated by the Red Sea crisis bongdaso Chinese ecommerce, adding: “Chinese exports, beyond the e-retailers, are registered as having grown violently.”
However, it warned that global trade structures were shifting, as efforts to reduce reliance on China increased.
It explained: “The position of China in the global trading system is becoming increasingly unsustainable, bongdaso there are attempts to effectively eject it from the trading system it entered in the 1990s.”
But new protectionist measures are not likely to shift dynamics any time soon, bongdaso China remains an increasingly large presence in global trade – illustrated by the sudden entrance of its ecommerce providers into western markets over the past year.
Further, these “increasingly huge trade surpluses from China” were now diversifying from western markets into new locations in Asia bongdaso the Americas, noted Ti.
From the supply side, Ti said, ecommerce from China could be a main driver for growing freighter fleets, but one of the strongest boosts for capacity was the increase in belly freight as passenger services had grown over the past three years. Year-on-year growth of belly capacity in March alone was 20%.
“The airlines find that they can hardly keep up with that demand, bongdaso the aircraft builders cannot make them fast enough. This is a different market to that prior to 2020, one characterised by budget airlines bongdaso surplus belly freight.”
Alongside ecommerce bongdaso the Red Sea crisis, demand spikes may also be an “early sentiment of optimism, engendered by the prospect of lower interest rates bongdaso inflation in most western markets”, said Ti.
“Underlying demand conditions seem quite buoyant, but they are complex bongdaso difficult to understand. This also suggests that one or more of these factors could change rapidly, bongdaso thus affect the level of growth quite quickly.”
Indeed, Pierre van der Stichele, VP of cargo at charter broker Air Partner, told The Loadstar this month: “I’ve never seen the industry so volatile in my near-30 years in cargo.”
Source: https://theloadstar.com/demand-for-air-freight-perking-up-but-this-puts-pressure-on-capacity/
At the inaugural Global Air Cargo Summit, held in Antalya, Türkiye, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecasted that air freight volumes will grow by an...
The imposition of new U.S. tariffs on foreign-made vehicles bongdaso components is causing significant disruptions in the global automotive supply chain. Airfreight, often a linchpin...
Global trade uncertainty is prompting air cargo shippers bongdaso freight forwarders to favor short-term contracts over longer-term agreements, as highlighted in a recent Xeneta...
U.S. plans to end tariff-free access for low-value shipments from China bongdaso Hong Kong, coupled with a new 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, are projected to slash over...
Trade groups warn of higher ocean shipping costs bongdaso disrupted supply chains, while U.S. officials argue the policy aims to strengthen domestic shipbuilding bongdaso enhance economic...
Since January, the Trump Administration has announced bongdaso delayed multiple tariffs on imports from Canada bongdaso Mexico, further destabilizing the cross-border freight market....
As global supply chains adjust to post-pandemic realities bongdaso shifting trade dynamics, the air cargo industry in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region finds itself at a pivotal crossroads.
Global tonnage improved +3% in week 15 (April 7-13) after the previous week’s drop of -7% as markets that had closed for the Eid-al-Fitr holiday came back on stream, but comparison...
E-commerce continues to be a key growth driver for air cargo, fueled by rising consumer demand bongdaso the rapid expansion of emerging markets, even as regulatory barriers increase.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has maintained a positive outlook for air cargo, emphasizing that the majority of global trade remains unaffected by the...
en