News #100 - Is cross-border e-commerce air bongdaso vn demand at risk?

bongdaso vn looming demise of bongdaso vn de minimis exemption could spur higher costs and delays, said Xeneta’s Niall van de Wouw.

• While the de minimis exemption has momentarily returned, a permanent move from President Donald Trump’s administration to nix the provision will significantly impact bongdaso vn freight capacity between the U.S., China and beyond, according to Xeneta’s Feb. 5 report.
• With cross-border e-commerce shipments accounting for more than 50% of bongdaso vn capacity from China to the U.S., prohibiting import shipments from de minimis entry would raise costs, add “time-consuming” entry requirements and create customs delays, Xeneta reported.
• “E-commerce products may be slightly more expensive if de minimis is removed, but they will still be cheaper than buying through retailers in bongdaso vn US – but delays in receiving bongdaso vn goods due to operational disruptions could have a bigger impact than price because it takes away bongdaso vn attractiveness for consumers,” Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said.

According to van de Wouw, it will “take a sledgehammer” to crack consumer demand — blocking de minimis alone won’t do it.

“China e-commerce was not set up to take advantage of de minimis loopholes - it has taken advantage of consumer demand for cheap, fast goods,” he said.

He added that China’s e-commerce giants “knew this day would come” and would not build a business model that would easily crumble under a collapse of bongdaso vn de minimis exemption.

“Even if de minimis is being blocked, the e-commerce retailers will still keep selling and shipping the goods. There may not be a significant impact on bongdaso vn freight rates in the short term in this scenario, even if it causes chaos at the receiving airport in the US.”

If the consumer decides that the cheaper price is not worth the longer wait to receive their goods, the air bongdaso vn market would most likely see a downward pressure on global air freight rates.

“Let’s wait and see. Maybe nothing changes,” he said.

Looking toward 2025

Van de Wouw reported no reason to change Xeneta’s 4% to 6% 2025 air bongdaso vn growth forecast, despite January seeing a lower-than-expected 2% year-over-year increase in air freight demand.

January By bongdaso vn Numbers

• 2%: YoY percentage increase in global air bongdaso vn volume
• .65: bongdaso vn average spot rate per kilogram, up 17% YoY and down 11% compared to bongdaso vn month prior
• 57%: The global dynamic load factor, which measures the volume and weight of bongdaso vn flown, as well as available capacity

Source: Xeneta

According to Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, January volumes were impacted by bongdaso vn earlier Lunar New Year celebrations, adding that anxiety over trade wars and tariffs are premature.

“The lower growth in air bongdaso vn demand in January was not down to President Trump, nor, entirely, the earlier Lunar New Year. It also compares to an unusually high comparison in January 2024,” van de Wouw said.

But planning will still be challenging as uncertainty is not beneficial for trade confidence, he noted. Van de Wouw advised that shippers should “not be rushing to make too many plans or take any drastic measures,” adding that teams should be flexible and patient to see how things play out.

“bongdaso vn implementation of tariffs by bongdaso vn US and bongdaso vn responses of China, Canada, and Mexico are just bongdaso vn start of a negotiation. It’s all transactional,” he said. “We could end up in a global trade war, but in bongdaso vn case of President Trump, we have someone who’s ready to negotiate everything and bongdaso vn rest of bongdaso vn world can influence bongdaso vn outcome, as we have already seen. bongdaso vn consistency here is he’s looking for a deal.”

Source: https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/xeneta-cross-border-e-commerce-air-bongdaso vn-de-minimis-risk/740392/

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