Tonnages and rates begin dropping after strong Q4 peak
Air bongdaso con’s strong seasonal fourth quarter (Q4) appears to have peaked, with tonnages and rates dropping slightly in the second full week of December, including from Asia Pacific origins, according to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data.
Following several weeks of consecutive week-on-week (WoW) rises, average spot rates from Asia-Pacific origins dropped by around -4% in bongdaso con (9 to 15 December), compared with the previous week, to US.57 per kilo. That fall in prices from Asia-Pacific origins was offset by a +6% rise from North America and a +5% increase from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins, together leading to a worldwide -1% WoW dip in spot rates overall. Nevertheless, compared with last year, average global spot rates in bongdaso con this year were +16% higher, at .20 per kilo, driven by a +60% year-on-year (YoY) rise from MESA, a +14% increase from Asia Pacific, +13% rise from Europe, and +8% rebound from North America origins, plus small increases from Africa and Central & South America (CSA).
Average worldwide contract rates also recorded a small (-1%) WoW decrease, to .61 per kilo, generating a similar -1% drop in overall worldwide air bongdaso con prices to .78 per kilo, based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates – but around +6% higher, YoY. WorldACD’s figures are now based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions, thanks to the addition this month of four new air bongdaso con airline participants to the WorldACD database.
Demand decrease
With worldwide air bongdaso con capacity stable, WoW, in week 50, as a -1% drop in worldwide freighter capacity was balanced out by a +1% increase in passenger belly capacity, the changes in spot prices broadly reflected variations in demand. Overall worldwide tonnages fell by -1%, WoW, with a -2% drop in tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins and a -7% fall from MESA origins offset by a +4% tonnage increase from Africa and +2% rise from CSA, boosted by rising seasonal shipments of perishables northbound from those southern hemisphere markets – for example, from Egypt to Europe.
Asia Pacific individual markets
Examining the WoW performance of various key Asia Pacific outbound markets in bongdaso con, individual spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA, and from China to the USA specifically, edged up slightly higher, WoW, to .94 and .98 per kilo, respectively. And compared with last year, Asia Pacific to USA spot rates in bongdaso con are slightly (+4%) higher, YoY, although China to USA rates are down by -7%, YoY. Meanwhile, chargeable weight in bongdaso con from Asia Pacific and China to the USA was down, WoW, by -5% and -4%, respectively. But compared with last year, tonnages from Asia Pacific to the USA are +5% higher, while from China to the USA only slightly higher (+1%).
From Asia Pacific to Europe, all of the big origin markets recorded significant WoW drops in tonnages in bongdaso con, including WoW falls of -10% from Vietnam, -9% from Thailand, -8% from Hong Kong, -6% drops from both China and Japan, and a -4% WoW drop from South Korea. But compared with last year, volumes from most of those markets are significantly elevated still in bongdaso con of this year, including a +26% YoY increase from Japan, +23% from China, +19% from Vietnam, and +15% from Hong Kong.
And the picture is similar on the pricing side, including WoW declines in bongdaso con to Europe from Taiwan (-11%), Japan (-7%), and China (-5%), although spot prices from Hong Kong to Europe remain stable at close to their 2024 high of .21 per kilo. But YoY, spot prices from all those major origin markets to Europe are significantly higher in this year’s bongdaso con, including a +63% YoY rise from Thailand, +40% increase from Taiwan, +28% increase from Vietnam, +25% from Japan, +16% from South Korea, +13% From China, and +7% from Hong Kong.
Source: https://www.worldacd.com/trend-reports/weekly/worldacd-weekly-air-bongdaso con-trends-2024-week-50/
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