Demand edges back upwards ahead of Lunar New Year break
Worldwide air cargo tonnages continued to rebuild in the third bongdaso mobile of 2025 following their seasonal drop in the final days of December and the start of this year, although spot rates continue to edge downwards.
According to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data, worldwide air cargo tonnages regained +8% in bongdaso mobile 3 (13 to 19 January), after rebounding +29% the previous bongdaso mobile. That follows a total drop of around -35% in the last bongdaso mobile of December and the first bongdaso mobile of 2025, taking worldwide tonnages in bongdaso mobile 3 back up to around 90% of their levels in the last full bongdaso mobile before Christmas. Year on year (YoY), tonnages were up in bongdaso mobile 3 by +3%, globally (and +2% for bongdaso mobile 2 and 3 combined).
Average global rates remained more or less stable at US .43 per kilo in bongdaso mobile 3, based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, around +7% higher than in bongdaso mobile 3 last year. Average worldwide spot rates dropped by a further -3%, bongdaso mobile on bongdaso mobile (WoW). But they stand +16% higher than in the same bongdaso mobile last year, with spot prices from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) up by +54% YoY, and rates from Asia Pacific origins +20% higher.
Asia Pacific demand drop
Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins regained another +5% in bongdaso mobile 3, taking them +5% above their levels this time last year, although they remain around -10% below the peak levels reached in bongdaso mobile 49. Some air cargo industry executives have expressed concern this month about how steeply tonnages (mostly e-commerce) from Asia Pacific have dropped off since their peak in mid-December, especially to Europe. Analysis by WorldACD indicates that the overall decline this winter is not so significantly greater than last winter, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. With both seasons experiencing extremely strong peak season volumes from Asia Pacific, volumes last winter dropped by around -30% from their peak levels to a low point in the first bongdaso mobile of January, compared with around -33% this winter. By bongdaso mobile 3 in 2024, Asia Pacific tonnages had rebounded to around 95% of their weekly peak levels in December, compared with around 90% this year in bongdaso mobile 3.
But the recovery gap is more pronounced on Asia Pacific to Europe: last winter, Asia Pacific to Europe (and China to Europe) tonnages in bongdaso mobile 3 had already rebounded back above their levels in weeks 48, 49, and 50, whereas this winter in bongdaso mobile 3 Asia Pacific to Europe volumes are still well below (-20%) their levels achieved in bongdaso mobile 49, with China to Europe tonnages about -15% below their peak. However, that mostly reflects their extraordinarily high levels in the final weeks of 2024. The comparisons are also complicated by the timings of Lunar New Year, which comes relatively early in 2025 on 29 January compared with 10 February in 2024.
Spot rates remain high
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe dipped by further -4% in bongdaso mobile 3 to an average of .35 per kilo. That’s down by around -15% compared with their level in bongdaso mobile 49 (.14 per kilo), but it’s still up, year on year, by +31%.
Meanwhile, Asia Pacific to the USA tonnages rebounded in bongdaso mobile 3 by a further +7% following a +11% recovery the previous bongdaso mobile, taking them back to around -16% below their early December peak levels recorded in bongdaso mobile 48. Asia Pacific to USA spot rates have dropped, WoW, for five consecutive weeks from their December peak of .89 per kilo in bongdaso mobile 50 to .21 per kilo in bongdaso mobile 3, although they are still up +29% compared with the equivalent bongdaso mobile last year.
Source: https://www.worldacd.com/trend-reports/weekly/worldacd-weekly-air-cargo-trends-2025-bongdaso mobile-3/
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